The FiveThirtyEight 2022 midterms forecast is live, and it shows that Republicans are strong favorites to win the House while the Senate is a toss up between the two parties. In the first "Model Talk" episode of the 2022 midterms cycle, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the factors behind that forecast.

The 2022 Forecast Is Live And ‘Model Talk’ Returns!

The crew discusses the political fallout from the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. They also analyze the court's other recent rulings on gun restrictions and school prayer and preview some of Tuesday's biggest primary elections.

What The Politics Of Abortion Look Like Now

Legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux speaks with Galen Druke about the Justices' arguments for overturning Roe v. Wade, where the legal debate goes next and how this contrasts and complements American opinion on abortion.

Emergency Podcast: Supreme Court Overturns Roe v. Wade

The crew breaks down a poll that asked Americans to identify from good to evil and lawful to chaotic on the Dungeons and Dragons alignment chart. They also review the mostly finalized congressional maps for the cycle and discuss new polling on American polarization.

Are 1 Percent Of Americans Evil?

Republican Mayra Flores won the special election in Texas’s 34th congressional district on Tuesday, avoiding a runoff and flipping the longtime Democratic seat in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley. The crew recaps that race and other notable results from the June 14 primaries.

More Trouble For Democrats In The Rio Grande Valley

The crew discusses how a bipartisan gun control deal was reached and if this unwritten legislation could be passed by the end of the year. They also previewed and caught up on some elections, including Alaska’s special election to replace longtime Alaska congressman Don Young that took place this past weekend.

Are Centrists The Most Powerful Politicians?

The crew breaks down the results of the June 7 primaries. Overall, more moderate candidates were able to win against challengers from the Right and Left flank of both parties, although there was a sizable protest vote in some instances.

Were The California Primaries A Blow To The Progressive Movement?

The crew previews California’s primaries, which offer unique insight into the divides within the Democratic Party. They also debate the usefulness of new polling on Americans’ superhero preferences by partisanship and preview the upcoming Jan. 6 hearings.

The Democratic Divides In California

The crew debates whether the Democratic Party really is actually in disarray as it struggles to pass legislation and faces a difficult midterm year, or if its hurdles are usual for any party in power. The team also discusses public opinion on gun laws after recent mass shootings in Texas, New York and California.

Are Democrats Actually In Disarray?

The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas and Minnesota.

Trump's Revenge Primary In Georgia Fails

The crew previews Tuesday's primaries in Georgia as well as contests in Arkansas, Alabama, Texas and Minnesota. They also ask whether it's too early to conclude that the leak of a draft Supreme Court opinion overturning Roe has had little impact on the political environment.

Are Trump's Endorsees About To Lose In Georgia?

The crew reacts to the results in Tuesday’s primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon. The results are mixed in terms of which factions of both parties performed well and the marquee Republican Senate primary race in Pennsylvania is still close to call and could remain that way for days.

What Tuesday's Primaries Could Mean For November

The crew discusses the races to watch in Tuesday night's primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Oregon and Kentucky. They also introduce a new FiveThirtyEight collaboration with Ipsos aimed at polling Americans about the issues they care most about in the run up to the midterms.

Who Will Win The GOP's Senate Primary In Pennsylvania?

Since January 2021, eleven states have enacted laws that limit how teachers can talk about race and racism in schools and close to 200 bills have been introduced in 40 states. Galen Druke discusses the context of these laws with Theodore Johnson, the Director of the Fellows Program at the Brennan Center for Justice.

The Politics Of Anti-Critical Race Theory Laws

The crew discusses the various types of legislation different states may adopt if Roe v. Wade is overturned, and how those policies jibe with local public opinion. They also discuss recent polling showing that President Biden has disproportionately lost support among traditionally Democratic voting groups

How The Fight Over Abortion Will Play Out In Red States

In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew covers both the results of the Ohio Senate primary and the leaked draft opinion from the Supreme Court that would overturn Roe v. Wade.

The Ohio Primary And Draft SCOTUS Opinion

The crew follows up on last week’s Republican 2024 primary draft with its first Democratic primary draft. What does the bench of Democratic leadership look like beyond Biden? They also discuss the latest developments in the current round of redistricting.

Our First 2024 Democratic Primary Draft

As the 2022 primaries begin in earnest and potential presidential candidates look ahead to 2024, the fight over the future of the political right is underway. In Matthew Continetti's new book, “The Right: The Hundred Year War For American Conservatism,” he argues that in order to understand where the right is heading, you have to understand where it's been.

How A Struggle Between Elites And Populists Has Shaped The Right

The crew hosts its first-ever 2024 Republican primary draft (they plan to follow up next week with a 2024 Democratic primary draft). 

Our First 2024 GOP Primary Draft

Galen Druke speaks with POLITICO Europe's Cornelius Hirsch and Clea Caulcutt about the dynamics at play in the French presidential election. As Emanuel Macron has occupied the middle of the political spectrum in France, with a focus on cooperation among European nations, the opposition parties have moved toward a nationalist, populist agenda.

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